History of the Study of Theology

Traces the study of theology from its beginning until the beginning of the 20th centur

History of the Study of Theology

Traces the study of theology from its beginning until the beginning of the 20th centur

A Bayesian approach to stochastic cost-effectiveness analysis

The aim of this paper is to discuss the use of Bayesian methods in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and the common ground between Bayesian and traditional frequentist approaches. A further aim is to explore the use of the net benefit statistic and its advantages over the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) statistic. In particular, the use of cost-effectiveness acceptability curves is examined as a device for presenting the implications of uncertainty in a CEA to decision makers. Although it is argued that the interpretation of such curves as the probability that an intervention is cost-effective given the data requires a Bayesian approach, this should generate no misgivings for the frequentist. Furthermore, cost-effectiveness acceptability curves estimated using the net benefit statistic are exactly equivalent to those estimated from an appropriate analysis of ICERs on the cost-effectiveness plane. The principles examined in this paper are illustrated by application to the cost-effectiveness of blood pressure control in the U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS 40). Due to a lack of good-quality prior information on the cost and effectiveness of blood pressure control in diabetes, a Bayesian analysis assuming an uninformative prior is argued to be most appropriate. This generates exactly the same cost-effectiveness results as a standard frequentist analysis

Quantum Dynamics Simulation with Classical Oscillators

In a previous paper [J.S.Briggs and A.Eisfeld, Phys.Rev.A 85, 052111] we showed that the time-development of the complex amplitudes of N coupled quantum states can be mapped by the time development of positions and velocities of N coupled classical oscillators. Here we examine to what extent this mapping can be realised to simulate the "quantum" properties of entanglement and qubit manipulation. By working through specific examples, e.g. of quantum gate operation, we seek to illuminate quantum/classical differences which hitherto have been treated more mathematically. In addition we show that important quantum coupled phenomena, such as the Landau-Zener transition and the occurrence of Fano resonances can be simulated by classical oscillators

On the Equivalence of Quantum and Classical Coherence in Electronic Energy Transfer

To investigate the effect of quantum coherence on electronic energy transfer, which is the subject of current interest in photosynthesis, we solve the problem of transport for the simplest model of an aggregate of monomers interacting through dipole-dipole forces using both quantum and classical dynamics. We conclude that for realistic coupling strengths quantum and classical coherent transport are identical. This is demonstrated by numerical calculations for a linear chain and for the photosynthetic Fenna-Matthews-Olson (FMO) comple

A note on the estimation of confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness when costs and effects are censored

<i>Background</i>. The relation between methodological advances in estimation of confidence intervals (CIs) for incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and estimation of cost effectiveness in the presence of censoring has not been explored. The authors address the joint problem of estimating ICER precision in the presence of censoring. <i>Methods</i>. Using patient-level data (n = 168) on cost and survival from a published placebo-controlled trial, the authors compared 2 methods of measuring uncertainty with censored data: 1)Bootstrap with censor adjustment (BCA); 2) Fieller’s method with censor adjustment (FCA). The authors estimate the FCA over all possible values for the correlation (p) between costs and effects (range= –1 to +1) and also examine the use of the correlation between cases without censoring adjustment (i.e., simple time-on-study) for costs and effects as an approximation for. <i>Results</i>. Using time-on-study, which considers all censored observations as responders (deaths), yields 0.64 life-years gained at an additional cost of 87.9 for a cost per life-year of 137 (95% CI by bootstrap –5.9 to 392). Censoring adjustment corrects for the bias in the time-on-study approach and reduces the cost per life-year estimate to 132 (=72/0.54). Confidence intervals with censor adjustment were approximately 40% wider than the base-case without adjustment. Using the Fieller method with an approximation of based on the uncensored cost and effect correlation provides a 95% CI of (–48 to 529), which is very close to the BCA interval of (–52 to 504). <i>Conclusions</i>. Adjustment for censoring is necessary in cost-effectiveness studies to obtain unbiased estimates of ICER with appropriate uncertainty limits. In this study, BCA and FCA methods, the latter with approximated covariance, are simple to compute and give similar confidence intervals

The J- and H-bands of dye aggregate spectra: Analysis of the coherent exciton scattering (CES) approximation

The validity of the CES approximation is investigated by comparison with direct diagonalisation of a model vibronic Hamiltonian of $N$ identical monomers interacting electronically. Even for quite short aggregates (N\gtrsim 6) the CES approximation is shown to give results in agreement with direct diagonalisation, for all coupling strengths, except that of intermediate positive coupling (the H-band region). However, previously excellent agreement of CES calculations and measured spectra in the H-band region was obtained [A. Eisfeld, J. S. Briggs, Chem. Phys. 324, 376]. This is shown to arise from use of the measured monomer spectrum which includes implicitly dissipative effects not present in the model calculation

Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves - facts, fallacies and frequently asked questions

Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) have been widely adopted as a method to quantify and graphically represent uncertainty in economic evaluation studies of health-care technologies. However, there remain some common fallacies regarding the nature and shape of CEACs that largely result from the textbook illustration of the CEAC. This textbook CEAC shows a smooth curve starting at probability 0, with an asymptote to 1 for higher money values of the health outcome (). But this familiar ogive shape which makes the textbook CEAC look like a cumulative distribution function is just one special case of the CEAC. The reality is that the CEAC can take many shapes and turns because it is a graphic transformation from the cost-effectiveness plane, where the joint density of incremental costs and effects may straddle quadrants with attendant discontinuities and asymptotes. In fact CEACs: (i) do not have to cut the y-axis at 0; (ii) do not have to asymptote to 1; (iii) are not always monotonically increasing in ; and (iv) do not represent cumulative distribution functions (cdfs). Within this paper we present a gallery of CEACs in order to identify the fallacies and illustrate the facts surrounding the CEAC. The aim of the paper is to serve as a reference tool to accompany the increased use of CEACs within major medical journals

HI Observations of the starburst galaxy NGC 2146

NGC 2146 is a peculiar spiral galaxy which is currently undergoing a major burst of star formation and is immersed in a extended HI structure that has morphological and kinematical resemblence to a strong tidal interaction. This paper reports aperture synthesis observations carried out in the 21cm line with the Very Large Array (VLA - The National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) is operated by Associated Universities, Inc. under cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation.) of two fields positioned to optimally cover the HI streams to the north and south of the galaxy, along with a 300 ft total power spectral mapping program to recover the low surface brightness extended emission. The observations reveal elongated streams of neutral hydrogen towards both the north and the south of the optical galaxy extending out up to 6 Holmberg radii. The streams are not in the principle plane of rotation of the galaxy, but instead are suggestive of a tidal interaction between NGC 2146 and a LSB companion that was destroyed by the encounter and remains undetected at optical wavelengths. Part of the southern stream is turning back to fall into the main galaxy, where it will create a long-lived warp in the HI disk of NGC 2146. Analysis of the trajectory of the outlying gas suggests that the closest encounter took place about 0.8 billion years ago and that infall of debris will continue for a similar time span.Comment: To be published in A&

2D3D2D: a diagnostic approach to textile and fashion research practice

In the School of Art and Design, at Nottingham Trent University, a range of research methods and practices have developed through PhD and post doctoral study in relation to printed textile design and new technology. Individual research projects have addressed pattern (Bunce 1993); photographic imagery (Briggs 1997); colour (Leak 2001); non-repeating pattern (Carlisle 2003) and 2D/3D (Townsend 2003). Post-doctoral research (Briggs-Goode & Bunce 2001) and Townsend's research into 2D/3D informed a group project and exhibition Transforming Shape (2004). The outcomes created by Gillian Bunce, Amanda Briggs-Goode, Gillian Bunce, Rosemary Goulding and Katherine Townsend explored the relationships between innovative surface imagery and three-dimensional prototypes, based on the simple geometric forms of square, rectangle and circle